One game left: the Valkyries' defense against the Dream's 70-point line

The game itself

The Dream and the Valkyries have stretched this season as long as it can go, to the last day of October. Saturday night at Chase Center in San Francisco decides the championship.

Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on Peacock, per the Yahoo preview.

It is the first Game 7 in WNBA Finals history. The league moved to a best-of-seven format last season, and the Las Vegas Aces swept the Phoenix Mercury, so this is the first time the format has reached its last possible game.

Both franchises are chasing something they have never had: Golden State in only its second season, Atlanta after losing the Finals in 2010, 2011 and 2013.

A Game 7 in this building is the loudest thing either franchise has played in front of, and the Valkyries have already had one home game in this series where the crowd carried them.

The 70-point line

The series has a clean dividing line. When the Dream score below 70, the Valkyries win; when Atlanta gets past 70, Golden State's defense has not had the last word.

The evidence is in the finals results: Golden State held Atlanta to 64, 62 and 55 points in its three victories, and the Dream's offense produced 80 in Game 6.

That is not a coincidence of one team's style. The Valkyries finished the regular season No. 1 in defensive rating at 100.6 and allowed a league-low 75.1 points per game, and they play at the league's slowest pace at 74.5 possessions.

Atlanta finished third in scoring at 91.3 points per game and fourth in pace at 80.7. The finals have been a fight over which of those numbers survives.

The line is not a prediction. It is a description of what has already happened six times: whichever team imposes its preferred game wins, and the scoreboard records the choice.

What Game 6 left behind

The Dream won Game 6 in Atlanta 80-69 on Thursday to even the series, and the first quarter was the difference: Atlanta ran out to a double-digit lead and never gave it back.

Natalie Nakase called her team's start "unacceptable" afterward, while Veronica Burton focused on the response, noting the Valkyries battled back from as far down as 25.

"At the end of the day, we feel good," Burton said. Under the silver lining, the Valkyries sounded more agitated than they had at any point in the series.

Nakase had complimented her team's composure before Game 6. Composure is what she will be relying on in Game 7.

The numbers that matter

Golden State is favored by 1.5 points, with the total set at 142.5, according to the Yahoo preview. That is a market telling you the game will be close and slow.

Both teams have won twice at home and once on the road in this series, which is a reminder that home court has not been decisive so far.

The Valkyries' three wins came by holding Atlanta to 64, 62 and 55. The Dream's three wins came when their offense escaped that range, including Game 6's 80.

For Golden State, the math is straightforward: keep the game in the half court, keep the pace down, and make Atlanta's half-court possessions the ones that decide it.

Home court has been worth less than expected in this series, which is why the market is closer than the seed difference suggests. The Valkyries are the better defensive team; the Dream have the better half-court scorer.

What each team is playing for

Atlanta has been to the Finals three times and lost all three, in 2010, 2011 and 2013. A franchise that has been close before is now one game from finishing it.

Golden State is in its second season of existence, and Ballhalla has become one of the league's loudest buildings. A championship in year two would be the fastest build in WNBA history.

The Dream's players have said throughout the series that the job is not done. The Valkyries have said the same thing in different words, usually after a loss.

Saturday is the last time either of them gets to say it.

Both franchises have spent this series saying the right things about process. Game 7 is where process stops mattering and the result becomes the only sentence anyone remembers.

What to watch

Three things. First, the first six minutes: Golden State has had one quarter in this series where its defense did not arrive, and a second one would end its season.

Second, Atlanta's 3-point shooting. The Dream have shot below forty percent for most of the series, and Game 6 was the second time they cleared that line.

Third, the pace. The Valkyries want a slow game and the Dream want a fast one, and Game 7 will be decided by whichever team imposes its tempo first.

Fourth, the free throw line. In a game projected to be decided by a handful of points, the team that gets to the line more often usually controls the last five minutes.

The season ends on Halloween either way. One franchise will call it the best night in its history; the other will spend the winter on the last five minutes.