The Knicks keep starting slowly, and the numbers are starting to explain it

The same script, again

The Knicks' games are starting to follow a pattern: a slow start, then a furious comeback, with the result depending on how good the opponent is. On Friday the opponent was a Philadelphia team that had already beaten them once.

New York came back from multiple 14-point deficits and made it close late. It lost 98-93, and it is 2-4.

The comeback is not the encouraging part any more. It is the thing that hides the start.

What the pattern does is compress the margin. A team that spends the first quarter losing ground has to play the last quarter perfectly, and against good teams that means every late possession becomes a referendum.

For the Knicks the question is not whether they can come back. They have shown that repeatedly. The question is whether they can stop needing to.

Two shooting numbers, and a ranking

The Knicks shot 40.7 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from 3-point range on Friday. In their previous three losses they averaged 40.8 percent and 32.4 percent from three.

That consistency is the problem. It is not one cold night; it is a pattern that has now produced a last-place ranking in offensive efficiency and raw scoring.

New York committed only 14 turnovers, which is usually a number that helps an offense. It did not help this one, because the misses arrived faster than the ball moved.

There is a version of this that is just variance, and six games is too few to rule it out. But the same percentages in four losses, with the same last-place efficiency, is a much narrower story than 'the shots are not falling yet'.

None of this means the roster is broken. It means the offense has a shape right now, and the shape is losing the first quarter.

Brown's line about home runs

"We're trying to get a home run every time we get the ball," coach Mike Brown said. "We have to hit singles."

That is a description of shot selection as much as shot-making. A team that is hunting a big play on the first action of a possession ends up with contested attempts late in the clock.

Jalen Brunson offered the player's version of the same idea. "Sometimes it can be us being hesitant as well, wanting to make the right play," he said. "We understand what we have to do, it's just starting the game that way."

The distinction between a home run and a single is about when the shot happens, not how hard it is. A single early in the clock can be a good shot; a home run attempt with four seconds left usually is not.

What Hart said about the ball sticking

Josh Hart was more specific about the mechanics. He described the ball getting stagnant and said the Knicks have to be more deliberate with cuts and movements and better at taking care of the ball.

He also raised fatigue: Friday was the third game in four nights. That is a real factor and an incomplete explanation, because the same pattern showed up in the two wins that preceded this one.

The first-half numbers back him up. New York allowed 17 points off turnovers before the break and gave up 26 points in the paint.

There is also a structural answer that has nothing to do with effort. When the first option is a post-up or an isolation, the other four players stand, and standing is what makes an offense look static even when everyone is trying.

Not the team that won in June

The Knicks won the title in June and the NBA Cup last season, and they still do not look like either team for long stretches. Mikal Bridges is struggling, and the ball movement issues have survived two straight wins.

There is context that matters: the team that swept Philadelphia in the second round last spring is now 0-2 against the same opponent, and the second loss came in the same building.

The players have said the Cup helped pull them together last season. That is the argument for patience; it is not an explanation for last place in offense.

The comparison to June is unfair in one direction and useful in another. This is a different roster with different minutes, but the standard the players set for themselves is the one they met five months ago.

What to watch

Three things. First, whether the first-quarter offense changes at all, since the pattern is now the team's most reliable trait.

Second, Brown's rotation decisions, because fatigue is real and the fix for a slow start is usually fewer minutes for the players who are supposed to be fresh in the fourth.

Third, whether Bridges' shot comes back. A starting wing shooting poorly changes how every other action is defended.

Fourth, the pace. A team ranked last in raw scoring usually is not playing fast enough to get easy points, and easy points are the cheapest cure for a slow start.

That is the test worth watching over the next two weeks: not the comeback, but the first six minutes.